Author: Robin Harris, the President of COK and former advisor to British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher.
These are dangerous days. Unlike most Europeans of this generation, Croats know what danger is. Real danger means the threat of death, loss of limbs, loss of homes and dignity, and finally loss of hope.
America holds the cards
If Europe proceeds along its current path that is the future that probably beckons.
It really does not matter who was more at fault during the catastrophic confrontation between President Trump, Vice President Vance and President Zelensky at the White House. The scenario was not planned by the Americans. If it was planned by Zelensky, inappropriately dressed like a Slavic Che Guevara, then it suggests that he is living in a world of unreality. As Trump said, America holds the cards, Ukraine does not.
The Croats are emotionally committed to Ukraine
The Americans expected it to be a friendly affair, sticking to discussion of the planned treaty about joint exploitation of Ukrainian mineral deposits. Remember it was Zelensky, himself, who proposed the plan, but then backed off it, and after that tried to add specific security guarantees. In any case, publicly tangling with Trump and Vance was the stupidest thing he could do, and it probably means that either the US will abandon Ukraine, or Zelensky will quickly have to resign. Perhaps both.
More worrying by far for Croats should be what, judging from much comment here on the Oval Office row, still seems to escape them. Croats are, of course, emotionally committed to Ukraine, because they see in its fight for freedom an echo of their own, and for today’s Russians they see the Serbs. This is understandable, but it is irrelevant. First, it is irrelevant because Croatia never faced a nuclear armed power – thus Trump’s remark about a Third World War was perfectly fair. Second, it does not address the question of borders. Which are the proper borders of Ukraine? Does it include, for example, Crimea which was only transferred to the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic in 1954? Borders are what the Ukrainian conflict is now about.
A credible nuclear guarantee?
The risk – and it is a large one – is that angered by the almost universal European condemnation of his treatment of Zelensky, Trump will respond in three ways. He may end all support for Ukraine. He may normalise economic relations with Russia, which will thus be greatly strengthened. And he may even state that the US will no longer honour its treaty obligations to Europe under the North Atlantic Treaty.
Europe will respond, and has already begun to discuss, a new set of defence arrangement. But European countries are weak in conventional weapons and forces. Their military capability is technologically pitiful compared with America’s.
Furthermore, the idea that the French or British will provide a credible nuclear guarantee to replace America’s is ridiculous to anyone who knows the background. The French deterrent would only ever be used in defence of France, as De Gaulle always conceived the French nuclear doctrine. Trident, the British deterrent, is probably anyway unusable without American approval. This is not a provision of the treaty under which the weapon is provided to Britain by the Americans, but I have always assumed during my years in UK politics that the US has the technical means to ensure that it is not used without its agreement.
Holding on to NATO must be Croatia’s strategic priority
That is why allowing Ukraine to become centre stage of a confrontation between Europe and America is so foolish. We in Europe, particularly in potentially unstable and exposed Southeastern Europe, need the US NATO defence guarantee. We should do everything we can to preserve it. Posturing on the world scene and annoying Washington is sheer childishness. Ukraine will never be in NATO. But Croatia is in NATO. Holding on to NATO – which means holding on to whatever friendship we can secure with Washington in today’s poisoned atmosphere – not dancing to the tune of Berlin, Brussels and Paris – must be Croatia’s strategic priority, if Croats do not wish to relive the tragedy of the past. It really is as simple as that.
